Jeremy Siegel’s advice that buying large energy companies when they are out of favor, and holding through thick and thin, seems to have been going through an animadversion of sorts lately. I’ve been reading online about several oil investors that have said they are abandoning their oil stock investments after seeing the sharp declines in price since this summer. It seems they’ve taken Siegel’s advice to be—if the price declines 10%, buy more. If the price declines 20%, buy more. But any more than that, sell!
As you can already guess, I find such a strategy terrible because it guarantees that you will be a terrible investor. When oil companies have conservative balance sheets, extensive reserves, and a wide range of production sources, you should buy more with confidence as prices decline because you are incorporating a margin of safety in your purchase price so that your future returns will … Read the rest of this article!