The American Exception And The Future Of The Stock Market

When someone is first introduced to stock market investing, they will often hear that stocks are supposed to return 10% annually over long periods of time, and this is the reason why it is worth seeing your paper worth fall by 50% at three or four different points over the course of your lifetime. People who are critical of this information say it is misleading because it promotes survivorship bias—the survivorship bias being that the United States is a highly fortuitous country because it spent the past 200+ years transitioning from being a ward of the English empire into becoming a standalone empire with a $17 trillion market of goods. People are right to wonder whether the results of the United States since 1800 are something that the United States can replicate in the future, and/or whether other countries will be able to replicate that success in the future.

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