Stock Prices Are Not Always Right

wandl

I recently came across an article memorializing the Facebook initial public offering that happened a year ago this month, and I wanted to share a story with you that provides perhaps the cleanest illustration of why I do not try to predict the prices of particular stocks over the short-term (and, in many cases, even the medium term).

This time last year, I was a senior in college at Washington & Lee. Because of a legacy scheduling quirk called “Spring Option”, seniors do not have to take any classes during a special four-week trimester that comes at the end of the academic year if they have already completed all of their credits necessary for graduation. Because I had already completed all of my classes, and being no fool, I gladly took the opportunity to create a nice little month-long vacation for myself.

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